Question 956 option, Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing, delta hedging, hedging
A bank sells a European call option on a non-dividend paying stock and delta hedges on a daily basis. Below is the result of their hedging, with columns representing consecutive days. Assume that there are 365 days per year and interest is paid daily in arrears.
Delta Hedging a Short Call using Stocks and Debt | |||||||
Description | Symbol | Days to maturity (T in days) | |||||
60 | 59 | 58 | 57 | 56 | 55 | ||
Spot price ($) | S | 10000 | 10125 | 9800 | 9675 | 10000 | 10000 |
Strike price ($) | K | 10000 | 10000 | 10000 | 10000 | 10000 | 10000 |
Risk free cont. comp. rate (pa) | r | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
Standard deviation of the stock's cont. comp. returns (pa) | σ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
Option maturity (years) | T | 0.164384 | 0.161644 | 0.158904 | 0.156164 | 0.153425 | 0.150685 |
Delta | N[d1] = dc/dS | 0.552416 | 0.582351 | 0.501138 | 0.467885 | 0.550649 | 0.550197 |
Probability that S > K at maturity in risk neutral world | N[d2] | 0.487871 | 0.51878 | 0.437781 | 0.405685 | 0.488282 | 0.488387 |
Call option price ($) | c | 685.391158 | 750.26411 | 567.990995 | 501.487157 | 660.982878 | ? |
Stock investment value ($) | N[d1]*S | 5524.164129 | 5896.301781 | 4911.152036 | 4526.788065 | 5506.488143 | ? |
Borrowing which partly funds stock investment ($) | N[d2]*K/e^(r*T) | 4838.772971 | 5146.037671 | 4343.161041 | 4025.300909 | 4845.505265 | ? |
Interest expense from borrowing paid in arrears ($) | r*N[d2]*K/e^(r*T) | 0.662891 | 0.704985 | 0.594994 | 0.551449 | ? | |
Gain on stock ($) | N[d1]*(SNew - SOld) | 69.052052 | -189.264008 | -62.642245 | 152.062648 | ? | |
Gain on short call option ($) | -1*(cNew - cOld) | -64.872952 | 182.273114 | 66.503839 | -159.495721 | ? | |
Net gain ($) | Gains - InterestExpense | 3.516209 | -7.695878 | 3.266599 | -7.984522 | ? | |
Gamma | Γ = d^2c/dS^2 | 0.000244 | 0.00024 | 0.000255 | 0.00026 | 0.000253 | 0.000255 |
Theta | θ = dc/dT | 2196.873429 | 2227.881353 | 2182.174706 | 2151.539751 | 2266.589184 | 2285.1895 |
In the last column when there are 55 days left to maturity there are missing values. Which of the following statements about those missing values is NOT correct?
A non-dividend paying stock has a current price of $20.
The risk free rate is 5% pa given as a continuously compounded rate.
A 2 year futures contract on the stock has a futures price of $24.
You suspect that the futures contract is mis-priced and would like to conduct a risk-free arbitrage that requires zero capital. Which of the following steps about arbitraging the situation is NOT correct?
A non-dividend paying stock has a current price of $20.
The risk free rate is 5% pa given as a continuously compounded rate.
Options on the stock are currently priced at $5 for calls and $5.55 for puts where both options have a 2 year maturity and an exercise price of $24.
You suspect that the call option contract is mis-priced and would like to conduct a risk-free arbitrage that requires zero capital. Which of the following steps about arbitraging the situation is NOT correct?
Question 948 VaR, expected shortfall
Below is a historical sample of returns on the S&P500 capital index.
S&P500 Capital Index Daily Returns Ranked from Best to Worst |
||
10,000 trading days from 4th August 1977 to 24 March 2017 based on closing prices. |
||
Rank | Date (DD-MM-YY) |
Continuously compounded daily return (% per day) |
1 | 21-10-87 | 9.23 |
2 | 08-03-83 | 8.97 |
3 | 13-11-08 | 8.3 |
4 | 30-09-08 | 8.09 |
5 | 28-10-08 | 8.01 |
6 | 29-10-87 | 7.28 |
… | … | … |
9980 | 11-12-08 | -5.51 |
9981 | 22-10-08 | -5.51 |
9982 | 08-08-11 | -5.54 |
9983 | 22-09-08 | -5.64 |
9984 | 11-09-86 | -5.69 |
9985 | 30-11-87 | -5.88 |
9986 | 14-04-00 | -5.99 |
9987 | 07-10-98 | -6.06 |
9988 | 08-01-88 | -6.51 |
9989 | 27-10-97 | -6.55 |
9990 | 13-10-89 | -6.62 |
9991 | 15-10-08 | -6.71 |
9992 | 29-09-08 | -6.85 |
9993 | 07-10-08 | -6.91 |
9994 | 14-11-08 | -7.64 |
9995 | 01-12-08 | -7.79 |
9996 | 29-10-08 | -8.05 |
9997 | 26-10-87 | -8.4 |
9998 | 31-08-98 | -8.45 |
9999 | 09-10-08 | -12.9 |
10000 | 19-10-87 | -23.36 |
Mean of all 10,000: | 0.0354 | |
Sample standard deviation of all 10,000: | 1.2062 | |
Sources: Bloomberg and S&P. | ||
Assume that the one-tail Z-statistic corresponding to a probability of 99.9% is exactly 3.09. Which of the following statements is NOT correct? Based on the historical data, the 99.9% daily:
Which derivatives position has the possibility of unlimited potential gains?
Which of the following terms about options are NOT synonyms?
What derivative position are you exposed to if you have the obligation to sell the underlying asset at maturity, so you will definitely be forced to sell the underlying asset?
Question 821 option, option profit, option payoff at maturity, no explanation
You just paid $4 for a 3 month European style call option on a stock currently priced at $47 with a strike price of $50. The stock’s next dividend will be $1 in 4 months’ time. Note that the dividend is paid after the option matures. Which of the below statements is NOT correct?
When does a European option's last-traded market price become a sunk cost?
Question 823 option, option payoff at maturity, option profit, no explanation
A European call option should only be exercised if:
A put option written on a risky non-dividend paying stock will mature in one month. As is normal, assume that the option's exercise price is non-zero and positive ##(K>0)## and the stock has limited liability ##(S>0)##.
Which of the following statements is NOT correct? The put option's:
Question 825 future, hedging, tailing the hedge, speculation, no explanation
An equity index fund manager controls a USD500 million diversified equity portfolio with a beta of 0.9. The equity manager expects a significant rally in equity prices next year. The market does not think that this will happen. If the fund manager wishes to increase his portfolio beta to 1.5, how many S&P500 futures should he buy?
The US market equity index is the S&P500. One year CME futures on the S&P500 currently trade at 2,155 points and the spot price is 2,180 points. Each point is worth $250.
The number of one year S&P500 futures contracts that the fund manager should buy is:
On 1 February 2016 you were told that your refinery company will need to purchase oil on 1 July 2016. You were afraid of the oil price rising between now and then so you bought some August 2016 futures contracts on 1 February 2016 to hedge against changes in the oil price. On 1 February 2016 the oil price was $40 and the August 2016 futures price was $43.
It's now 1 July 2016 and oil price is $45 and the August 2016 futures price is $46. You bought the spot oil and closed out your futures position on 1 July 2016.
What was the effective price paid for the oil, taking into account basis risk? All spot and futures oil prices quoted above and below are per barrel.
You intend to use futures on oil to hedge the risk of purchasing oil. There is no cross-hedging risk. Oil pays no dividends but it’s costly to store. Which of the following statements about basis risk in this scenario is NOT correct?
You bought a 1.5 year (18 month) futures contract on oil. Oil storage costs are 4% pa continuously compounded and oil pays no dividends. The futures contract is entered into when the oil price is $40 per barrel and the risk-free rate of interest is 10% per annum with continuous compounding.
Which of the following statements is NOT correct?
Question 829 option, future, delta, gamma, theta, no explanation
Below are some statements about futures and European-style options on non-dividend paying stocks. Assume that the risk free rate is always positive. Which of these statements is NOT correct? All other things remaining equal:
A 2-year futures contract on a stock paying a continuous dividend yield of 3% pa was bought when the underlying stock price was $10 and the risk free rate was 10% per annum with continuous compounding. Assume that investors are risk-neutral, so the stock's total required return is the risk free rate.
Find the forward price ##(F_2)## and value of the contract ##(V_0)## initially. Also find the value of the contract in 6 months ##(V_{0.5})## if the stock price rose to $12.
A stock is expected to pay a dividend of $5 per share in 1 month and $5 again in 7 months.
The stock price is $100, and the risk-free rate of interest is 10% per annum with continuous compounding. The yield curve is flat. Assume that investors are risk-neutral.
An investor has just taken a short position in a one year forward contract on the stock.
Find the forward price ##(F_1)## and value of the contract ##(V_0)## initially. Also find the value of the short futures contract in 6 months ##(V_\text{0.5, SF})## if the stock price fell to $90.
Below are some statements about European-style options on non-dividend paying stocks. Assume that the risk free rate is always positive. Which of these statements is NOT correct?
Question 831 option, American option, no explanation
Which of the following statements about American-style options is NOT correct? American-style:
A company has a 95% daily Value at Risk (VaR) of $1 million. The units of this VaR are in:
A 12 month European-style call option with a strike price of $11 is written on a dividend paying stock currently trading at $10. The dividend is paid annually and the next dividend is expected to be $0.40, paid in 9 months. The risk-free interest rate is 5% pa continuously compounded and the standard deviation of the stock’s continuously compounded returns is 30 percentage points pa. The stock's continuously compounded returns are normally distributed. Using the Black-Scholes-Merton option valuation model, determine which of the following statements is NOT correct.
Question 833 option, delta, theta, standard deviation, no explanation
Which of the following statements about an option (either a call or put) and its underlying stock is NOT correct?
Question 790 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate, log-normal distribution, VaR, confidence interval
A risk manager has identified that their hedge fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 30% pa. The hedge fund’s portfolio is currently valued at $100 million. Assume that there is no estimation error in these figures and that the normal cumulative density function at 1.644853627 is 95%.
Which of the following statements is NOT correct? All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar.
Which of the below formulas gives the payoff at maturity ##(f_T)## from being long a future? Let the underlying asset price at maturity be ##S_T## and the locked-in futures price be ##K_T##.
Which of the below formulas gives the payoff at maturity ##(f_T)## from being short a future? Let the underlying asset price at maturity be ##S_T## and the locked-in futures price be ##K_T##.
A trader sells one crude oil futures contract on the CME expiring in one year with a locked-in futures price of $38.94 per barrel. The crude oil spot price is $40.33. If the trader doesn’t close out her contract before expiry then in one year she will have the:
In general, stock prices tend to rise. What does this mean for futures on equity?
Which of the following statements about futures contracts on shares is NOT correct, assuming that markets are efficient?
When an equity future is first negotiated (at t=0):
The current gold price is $700, gold storage costs are 2% pa and the risk free rate is 10% pa, both with continuous compounding.
What should be the 3 year gold futures price?
In February a company sold one December 40,000 pound (about 18 metric tons) lean hog futures contract. It closed out its position in May.
The spot price was $0.68 per pound in February. The December futures price was $0.70 per pound when the trader entered into the contract in February, $0.60 when he closed out his position in May, and $0.55 when the contract matured in December.
What was the total profit?
An equity index stands at 100 points and the one year equity futures price is 107.
The equity index is expected to have a dividend yield of 3% pa. Assume that investors are risk-neutral so their total required return on the shares is the same as the risk free Treasury bond yield which is 10% pa. Both are given as discrete effective annual rates.
Assuming that the equity index is fairly priced, an arbitrageur would recognise that the equity futures are:
A stock is expected to pay its semi-annual dividend of $1 per share for the foreseeable future. The current stock price is $40 and the continuously compounded risk free rate is 3% pa for all maturities. An investor has just taken a long position in a 12-month futures contract on the stock. The last dividend payment was exactly 4 months ago. Therefore the next $1 dividend is in 2 months, and the $1 dividend after is 8 months from now. Which of the following statements about this scenario is NOT correct?
You believe that the price of a share will fall significantly very soon, but the rest of the market does not. The market thinks that the share price will remain the same. Assuming that your prediction will soon be true, which of the following trades is a bad idea? In other words, which trade will NOT make money or prevent losses?
A man just sold a call option to his counterparty, a lady. The man has just now:
A European call option will mature in ##T## years with a strike price of ##K## dollars. The underlying asset has a price of ##S## dollars.
What is an expression for the payoff at maturity ##(f_T)## in dollars from owning (being long) the call option?
A European put option will mature in ##T## years with a strike price of ##K## dollars. The underlying asset has a price of ##S## dollars.
What is an expression for the payoff at maturity ##(f_T)## in dollars from owning (being long) the put option?
A European call option will mature in ##T## years with a strike price of ##K## dollars. The underlying asset has a price of ##S## dollars.
What is an expression for the payoff at maturity ##(f_T)## in dollars from having written (being short) the call option?
A European put option will mature in ##T## years with a strike price of ##K## dollars. The underlying asset has a price of ##S## dollars.
What is an expression for the payoff at maturity ##(f_T)## in dollars from having written (being short) the put option?
Question 432 option, option intrinsic value, no explanation
An American style call option with a strike price of ##K## dollars will mature in ##T## years. The underlying asset has a price of ##S## dollars.
What is an expression for the current intrinsic value in dollars from owning (being long) the American style call option? Note that the intrinsic value of an option does not subtract the premium paid to buy the option.
Which of the following statements about option contracts is NOT correct? For every:
If trader A has sold the right that allows counterparty B to buy the underlying asset from him at maturity if counterparty B wants then trader A is:
After doing extensive fundamental analysis of a company, you believe that their shares are overpriced and will soon fall significantly. The market believes that there will be no such fall.
Which of the following strategies is NOT a good idea, assuming that your prediction is true?
Which one of the below option and futures contracts gives the possibility of potentially unlimited gains?
A trader buys one crude oil European style call option contract on the CME expiring in one year with an exercise price of $44 per barrel for a price of $6.64. The crude oil spot price is $40.33. If the trader doesn’t close out her contract before maturity, then at maturity she will have the:
Which of the below formulas gives the profit ##(\pi)## from being long a call option? Let the underlying asset price at maturity be ##S_T##, the exercise price be ##X_T## and the option price be ##f_{LC,0}##. Note that ##S_T##, ##X_T## and ##f_{LC,0}## are all positive numbers.
Which of the below formulas gives the profit ##(\pi)## from being short a call option? Let the underlying asset price at maturity be ##S_T##, the exercise price be ##X_T## and the option price be ##f_{LC,0}##. Note that ##S_T##, ##X_T## and ##f_{LC,0}## are all positive numbers.
Which of the below formulas gives the profit ##(\pi)## from being long a put option? Let the underlying asset price at maturity be ##S_T##, the exercise price be ##X_T## and the option price be ##f_{LP,0}##. Note that ##S_T##, ##X_T## and ##f_{LP,0}## are all positive numbers.
Which of the below formulas gives the profit ##(\pi)## from being short a put option? Let the underlying asset price at maturity be ##S_T##, the exercise price be ##X_T## and the option price be ##f_{LP,0}##. Note that ##S_T##, ##X_T## and ##f_{LP,0}## are all positive numbers.
A trader sells one crude oil European style call option contract on the CME expiring in one year with an exercise price of $44 per barrel for a price of $6.64. The crude oil spot price is $40.33. If the trader doesn’t close out her contract before maturity, then at maturity she will have the:
Which of the following statements about call options is NOT correct?
A trader just bought a European style put option on CBA stock. The current option premium is $2, the exercise price is $75, the option matures in one year and the spot CBA stock price is $74.
Which of the following statements is NOT correct?
Question 584 option, option payoff at maturity, option profit
Which of the following statements about European call options on non-dividend paying stocks is NOT correct?
A company runs a number of slaughterhouses which supply hamburger meat to McDonalds. The company is afraid that live cattle prices will increase over the next year, even though there is widespread belief in the market that they will be stable. What can the company do to hedge against the risk of increasing live cattle prices? Which statement(s) are correct?
(i) buy call options on live cattle.
(ii) buy put options on live cattle.
(iii) sell call options on live cattle.
Select the most correct response:
Below are 4 option graphs. Note that the y-axis is payoff at maturity (T). What options do they depict? List them in the order that they are numbered.
![Image of option graphs](deals/deal103OptionGraph.png)
You have just sold an 'in the money' 6 month European put option on the mining company BHP at an exercise price of $40 for a premium of $3.
Which of the following statements best describes your situation?
You operate a cattle farm that supplies hamburger meat to the big fast food chains. You buy a lot of grain to feed your cattle, and you sell the fully grown cattle on the livestock market.
You're afraid of adverse movements in grain and livestock prices. What options should you buy to hedge your exposures in the grain and cattle livestock markets?
Select the most correct response:
Question 271 CAPM, option, risk, systematic risk, systematic and idiosyncratic risk
All things remaining equal, according to the capital asset pricing model, if the systematic variance of an asset increases, its required return will increase and its price will decrease.
If the idiosyncratic variance of an asset increases, its price will be unchanged.
What is the relationship between the price of a call or put option and the total, systematic and idiosyncratic variance of the underlying asset that the option is based on? Select the most correct answer.
Call and put option prices increase when the:
A pig farmer in the US is worried about the price of hogs falling and wants to lock in a price now. In one year the pig farmer intends to sell 1,000,000 pounds of hogs. Luckily, one year CME lean hog futures expire on the exact day that he wishes to sell his pigs. The futures have a notional principal of 40,000 pounds (about 18 metric tons) and currently trade at a price of 63.85 cents per pound. The underlying lean hogs spot price is 77.15 cents per pound. The correlation between the futures price and the underlying hogs price is one and the standard deviations are both 4 cents per pound. The initial margin is USD1,500 and the maintenance margin is USD1,200 per futures contract.
Which of the below statements is NOT correct?
An equity index fund manager controls a USD1 billion diversified equity portfolio with a beta of 1.3. The equity manager fears that a global recession will begin in the next year, causing equity prices to tumble. The market does not think that this will happen. If the fund manager wishes to reduce her portfolio beta to 0.5, how many S&P500 futures should she sell?
The US market equity index is the S&P500. One year CME futures on the S&P500 currently trade at 2,062 points and the spot price is 2,091 points. Each point is worth $250. How many one year S&P500 futures contracts should the fund manager sell?
The standard deviation of monthly changes in the spot price of corn is 50 cents per bushel. The standard deviation of monthly changes in the futures price of corn is 40 cents per bushel. The correlation between the spot price of corn and the futures price of corn is 0.9.
It is now March. A corn chip manufacturer is committed to buying 250,000 bushels of corn in May. The spot price of corn is 381 cents per bushel and the June futures price is 399 cents per bushel.
The corn chip manufacturer wants to use the June corn futures contracts to hedge his risk. Each futures contract is for the delivery of 5,000 bushels of corn. One bushel is about 127 metric tons.
How many corn futures should the corn chip manufacturer buy to hedge his risk? Round your answer to the nearest whole number of contracts. Remember to tail the hedge.
A one year European-style call option has a strike price of $4. The option's underlying stock pays no dividends and currently trades at $5. The risk-free interest rate is 10% pa continuously compounded. Use a single step binomial tree to calculate the option price, assuming that the price could rise to $8 ##(u = 1.6)## or fall to $3.125 ##(d = 1/1.6)## in one year. The call option price now is:
A one year European-style put option has a strike price of $4. The option's underlying stock pays no dividends and currently trades at $5. The risk-free interest rate is 10% pa continuously compounded. Use a single step binomial tree to calculate the option price, assuming that the price could rise to $8 ##(u = 1.6)## or fall to $3.125 ##(d = 1/1.6)## in one year. The put option price now is:
Being long a call and short a put which have the same exercise prices and underlying stock is equivalent to being:
A stock, a call, a put and a bond are available to trade. The call and put options' underlying asset is the stock they and have the same strike prices, ##K_T##.
Being long the call and short the stock is equivalent to being:
A stock, a call, a put and a bond are available to trade. The call and put options' underlying asset is the stock they and have the same strike prices, ##K_T##.
You are currently long the stock. You want to hedge your long stock position without actually trading the stock. How would you do this?
Question 794 option, Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing, option delta, no explanation
Which of the following quantities from the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing formula gives the Delta of a European call option?
Where:
###d_1=\dfrac{\ln[S_0/K]+(r+\sigma^2/2).T)}{\sigma.\sqrt{T}}### ###d_2=d_1-\sigma.\sqrt{T}=\dfrac{\ln[S_0/K]+(r-\sigma^2/2).T)}{\sigma.\sqrt{T}}###Question 795 option, Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing, option delta, no explanation
Which of the following quantities from the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing formula gives the Delta of a European put option?
Question 796 option, Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing, option delta, no explanation
Which of the following quantities from the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing formula gives the risk-neutral probability that a European call option will be exercised?
Question 797 option, Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing, option delta, no explanation
Which of the following quantities from the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing formula gives the risk-neutral probability that a European put option will be exercised?
Question 903 option, Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing, option on stock index
A six month European-style call option on the S&P500 stock index has a strike price of 2800 points.
The underlying S&P500 stock index currently trades at 2700 points, has a continuously compounded dividend yield of 2% pa and a standard deviation of continuously compounded returns of 25% pa.
The risk-free interest rate is 5% pa continuously compounded.
Use the Black-Scholes-Merton formula to calculate the option price. The call option price now is:
Question 906 effective rate, return types, net discrete return, return distribution, price gains and returns over time
For an asset's price to double from say $1 to $2 in one year, what must its effective annual return be? Note that an effective annual return is also called a net discrete return per annum. If the price now is ##P_0## and the price in one year is ##P_1## then the effective annul return over the next year is:
###r_\text{effective annual} = \dfrac{P_1 - P_0}{P_0} = \text{NDR}_\text{annual}###Question 907 continuously compounding rate, return types, return distribution, price gains and returns over time
For an asset's price to double from say $1 to $2 in one year, what must its continuously compounded return ##(r_{CC})## be? If the price now is ##P_0## and the price in one year is ##P_1## then the continuously compounded return over the next year is:
###r_\text{CC annual} = \ln{\left[ \dfrac{P_1}{P_0} \right]} = \text{LGDR}_\text{annual}###Question 908 effective rate, return types, gross discrete return, return distribution, price gains and returns over time
For an asset's price to double from say $1 to $2 in one year, what must its gross discrete return (GDR) be? If the price now is ##P_0## and the price in one year is ##P_1## then the gross discrete return over the next year is:
###\text{GDR}_\text{annual} = \dfrac{P_1}{P_0}###If a variable, say X, is normally distributed with mean ##\mu## and variance ##\sigma^2## then mathematicians write ##X \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)##.
If a variable, say Y, is log-normally distributed and the underlying normal distribution has mean ##\mu## and variance ##\sigma^2## then mathematicians write ## Y \sim \mathbf{ln} \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)##.
The below three graphs show probability density functions (PDF) of three different random variables Red, Green and Blue.
![PDF graph](deals/715ReturnDistributionsLabelled.png)
Select the most correct statement:
The below three graphs show probability density functions (PDF) of three different random variables Red, Green and Blue. Let ##P_1## be the unknown price of a stock in one year. ##P_1## is a random variable. Let ##P_0 = 1##, so the share price now is $1. This one dollar is a constant, it is not a variable.
![PDF graph](deals/715ReturnDistributionsLabelled.png)
Which of the below statements is NOT correct? Financial practitioners commonly assume that the shape of the PDF represented in the colour:
Question 719 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate
A stock has an arithmetic average continuously compounded return (AALGDR) of 10% pa, a standard deviation of continuously compounded returns (SDLGDR) of 80% pa and current stock price of $1. Assume that stock prices are log-normally distributed. The graph below summarises this information and provides some helpful formulas.
![graph](deals/719DistributionsAALGDR10PercentQuestion.png)
In one year, what do you expect the median and mean prices to be? The answer options are given in the same order.
Question 720 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate
A stock has an arithmetic average continuously compounded return (AALGDR) of 10% pa, a standard deviation of continuously compounded returns (SDLGDR) of 80% pa and current stock price of $1. Assume that stock prices are log-normally distributed.
In 5 years, what do you expect the median and mean prices to be? The answer options are given in the same order.
Question 723 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate
Here is a table of stock prices and returns. Which of the statements below the table is NOT correct?
Price and Return Population Statistics | ||||
Time | Prices | LGDR | GDR | NDR |
0 | 100 | |||
1 | 99 | -0.010050 | 0.990000 | -0.010000 |
2 | 180.40 | 0.600057 | 1.822222 | 0.822222 |
3 | 112.73 | 0.470181 | 0.624889 | 0.375111 |
Arithmetic average | 0.0399 | 1.1457 | 0.1457 | |
Arithmetic standard deviation | 0.4384 | 0.5011 | 0.5011 | |
Which of the following quantities is commonly assumed to be normally distributed?
The below three graphs show probability density functions (PDF) of three different random variables Red, Green and Blue.
![PDF graph](deals/715ReturnDistributionsLabelled.png)
Which of the below statements is NOT correct?
The symbol ##\text{GDR}_{0\rightarrow 1}## represents a stock's gross discrete return per annum over the first year. ##\text{GDR}_{0\rightarrow 1} = P_1/P_0##. The subscript indicates the time period that the return is mentioned over. So for example, ##\text{AAGDR}_{1 \rightarrow 3}## is the arithmetic average GDR measured over the two year period from years 1 to 3, but it is expressed as a per annum rate.
Which of the below statements about the arithmetic and geometric average GDR is NOT correct?
Question 721 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate
Fred owns some Commonwealth Bank (CBA) shares. He has calculated CBA’s monthly returns for each month in the past 20 years using this formula:
###r_\text{t monthly}=\ln \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)###He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 1% per month using this formula:
###\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.01=1\% \text{ per month}###He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 5% per month:
###\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.05=5\%\text{ per month}###Which of the below statements about Fred’s CBA shares is NOT correct? Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns.
Question 722 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate
Here is a table of stock prices and returns. Which of the statements below the table is NOT correct?
Price and Return Population Statistics | ||||
Time | Prices | LGDR | GDR | NDR |
0 | 100 | |||
1 | 50 | -0.6931 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
2 | 100 | 0.6931 | 2 | 1 |
Arithmetic average | 0 | 1.25 | 0.25 | |
Arithmetic standard deviation | 0.9802 | 1.0607 | 1.0607 | |
Question 779 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate
Fred owns some BHP shares. He has calculated BHP’s monthly returns for each month in the past 30 years using this formula:
###r_\text{t monthly}=\ln \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)###He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 0.8% per month using this formula:
###\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.008=0.8\% \text{ per month}###He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 15% per month:
###\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.15=15\%\text{ per month}###Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns and the stock's returns calculated above ##(r_\text{t monthly})## are normally distributed. Which of the below statements about Fred’s BHP shares is NOT correct?
Question 792 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate, log-normal distribution, confidence interval
A risk manager has identified that their investment fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 40% pa. The fund’s portfolio is currently valued at $1 million. Assume that there is no estimation error in the above figures. To simplify your calculations, all answers below use 2.33 as an approximation for the normal inverse cumulative density function at 99%. All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar. Assume one month is 1/12 of a year. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?
Question 811 log-normal distribution, mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages
Which of the following statements about probability distributions is NOT correct?
Question 921 utility, return distribution, log-normal distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, no explanation
Who was the first theorist to propose the idea of ‘expected utility’?
Question 874 utility, return distribution, log-normal distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages
Who was the first theorist to endorse the maximisiation of the geometric average gross discrete return for investors (not gamblers) since it gave a "...portfolio that has a greater probability of being as valuable or more valuable than any other significantly different portfolio at the end of n years, n being large"?
Question 925 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate, no explanation
The arithmetic average and standard deviation of returns on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 were calculated as follows:
###\bar{r}_\text{yearly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1992}^{24}{\left( \ln \left( \dfrac{P_{t+1}}{P_t} \right) \right)} }{T} = \text{AALGDR} =0.0949=9.49\% \text{ pa}###
###\sigma_\text{yearly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1992}^{24}{\left( \left( \ln \left( \dfrac{P_{t+1}}{P_t} \right) - \bar{r}_\text{yearly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} = \text{SDLGDR} = 0.1692=16.92\text{ pp pa}###
Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed and that the above estimates are true population statistics, not sample statistics, so there is no standard error in the sample mean or standard deviation estimates. Also assume that the standardised normal Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail probability of 2.5% is exactly -1.96.
Which of the following statements is NOT correct? If you invested $1m today in the ASX200, then over the next 4 years:
Question 926 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate
The arithmetic average continuously compounded or log gross discrete return (AALGDR) on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 is 9.49% pa.
The arithmetic standard deviation (SDLGDR) is 16.92 percentage points pa.
Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed and that the above estimates are true population statistics, not sample statistics, so there is no standard error in the sample mean or standard deviation estimates. Also assume that the standardised normal Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail probability of 2.5% is exactly -1.96.
If you had a $1 million fund that replicated the ASX200 accumulation index, in how many years would the median dollar value of your fund first be expected to lie outside the 95% confidence interval forecast?
Question 927 mean and median returns, mode return, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate
The arithmetic average continuously compounded or log gross discrete return (AALGDR) on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 is 9.49% pa.
The arithmetic standard deviation (SDLGDR) is 16.92 percentage points pa.
Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed and that the above estimates are true population statistics, not sample statistics, so there is no standard error in the sample mean or standard deviation estimates. Also assume that the standardised normal Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail probability of 2.5% is exactly -1.96.
If you had a $1 million fund that replicated the ASX200 accumulation index, in how many years would the mean dollar value of your fund first be expected to lie outside the 95% confidence interval forecast?
Question 928 mean and median returns, mode return, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate, no explanation
The arithmetic average continuously compounded or log gross discrete return (AALGDR) on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 is 9.49% pa.
The arithmetic standard deviation (SDLGDR) is 16.92 percentage points pa.
Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed and that the above estimates are true population statistics, not sample statistics, so there is no standard error in the sample mean or standard deviation estimates. Also assume that the standardised normal Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail probability of 2.5% is exactly -1.96.
If you had a $1 million fund that replicated the ASX200 accumulation index, in how many years would the mode dollar value of your fund first be expected to lie outside the 95% confidence interval forecast?
Note that the mode of a log-normally distributed future price is: ##P_{T \text{ mode}} = P_0.e^{(\text{AALGDR} - \text{SDLGDR}^2 ).T} ##
Question 785 fixed for floating interest rate swap, non-intermediated swap
The below table summarises the borrowing costs confronting two companies A and B.
Bond Market Yields | ||||
Fixed Yield to Maturity (%pa) | Floating Yield (%pa) | |||
Firm A | 3 | L - 0.4 | ||
Firm B | 5 | L + 1 | ||
Firm A wishes to borrow at a floating rate and Firm B wishes to borrow at a fixed rate. Design a non-intermediated swap that benefits firm A only. What will be the swap rate?
Question 786 fixed for floating interest rate swap, intermediated swap
The below table summarises the borrowing costs confronting two companies A and B.
Bond Market Yields | ||||
Fixed Yield to Maturity (%pa) | Floating Yield (%pa) | |||
Firm A | 3 | L - 0.4 | ||
Firm B | 5 | L + 1 | ||
Firm A wishes to borrow at a floating rate and Firm B wishes to borrow at a fixed rate. Design an intermediated swap (which means there will actually be two swaps) that nets a bank 0.1% and shares the remaining swap benefits between Firms A and B equally. Which of the following statements about the swap is NOT correct?
Question 787 fixed for floating interest rate swap, intermediated swap
The below table summarises the borrowing costs confronting two companies A and B.
Bond Market Yields | ||||
Fixed Yield to Maturity (%pa) | Floating Yield (%pa) | |||
Firm A | 2 | L - 0.1 | ||
Firm B | 2.5 | L | ||
Firm A wishes to borrow at a floating rate and Firm B wishes to borrow at a fixed rate. Design an intermediated swap (which means there will actually be two swaps) that nets a bank 0.15% and grants the remaining swap benefits to Firm A only. Which of the following statements about the swap is NOT correct?
A company can invest funds in a five year project at LIBOR plus 50 basis points pa. The five-year swap rate is 4% pa. What fixed rate of interest can the company earn over the next five years by using the swap?