One year ago you bought $100,000 of shares partly funded using a margin loan. The margin loan size was $70,000 and the other $30,000 was your own wealth or 'equity' in the share assets.
The interest rate on the margin loan was 7.84% pa.
Over the year, the shares produced a dividend yield of 4% pa and a capital gain of 5% pa.
What was the total return on your wealth? Ignore taxes, assume that all cash flows (interest payments and dividends) were paid and received at the end of the year, and all rates above are effective annual rates.
Hint: Remember that wealth in this context is your equity (E) in the house asset (V = D+E) which is funded by the loan (D) and your deposit or equity (E).
Question 990 Multiples valuation, EV to EBITDA ratio, enterprise value
A firm has:
2 million shares;
$200 million EBITDA expected over the next year;
$100 million in cash (not included in EV);
1/3 market debt-to-assets ratio is (market assets = EV + cash);
4% pa expected dividend yield over the next year, paid annually with the next dividend expected in one year;
2% pa expected dividend growth rate;
40% expected payout ratio over the next year;10 times EV/EBITDA ratio.
30% corporate tax rate.
The stock can be valued using the EV/EBITDA multiple, dividend discount model, Gordon growth model or PE multiple. Which of the below statements is NOT correct based on an EV/EBITDA multiple valuation?
A stock has a beta of 1.5. The market's expected total return is 10% pa and the risk free rate is 5% pa, both given as effective annual rates.
In the last 5 minutes, bad economic news was released showing a higher chance of recession. Over this time the share market fell by 1%. The risk free rate was unchanged.
What do you think was the stock's historical return over the last 5 minutes, given as an effective 5 minute rate?
A stock has a beta of 1.5. The market's expected total return is 10% pa and the risk free rate is 5% pa, both given as effective annual rates.
Over the last year, bad economic news was released showing a higher chance of recession. Over this time the share market fell by 1%. So ##r_{m} = (P_{0} - P_{-1})/P_{-1} = -0.01##, where the current time is zero and one year ago is time -1. The risk free rate was unchanged.
What do you think was the stock's historical return over the last year, given as an effective annual rate?
The market's expected total return is 10% pa and the risk free rate is 5% pa, both given as effective annual rates.
A stock has a beta of 0.7.
In the last 5 minutes, bad economic news was released showing a higher chance of recession. Over this time the share market fell by 2%. The risk free rate was unchanged. What do you think was the stock's historical return over the last 5 minutes, given as an effective 5 minute rate?
A firm changes its capital structure by issuing a large amount of equity and using the funds to repay debt. Its assets are unchanged. Ignore interest tax shields.
According to the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which statement is correct?
Question 807 market efficiency, expected and historical returns, CAPM, beta, systematic risk, no explanation
You work in Asia and just woke up. It looked like a nice day but then you read the news and found out that last night the American share market fell by 10% while you were asleep due to surprisingly poor macro-economic world news. You own a portfolio of liquid stocks listed in Asia with a beta of 1.6. When the Asian equity markets open, what do you expect to happen to your share portfolio? Assume that the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is correct and that the market portfolio contains all shares in the world, of which American shares are a big part. Your portfolio beta is measured against this world market portfolio.
When the Asian equity market opens for trade, you would expect your portfolio value to:
Question 809 Markowitz portfolio theory, CAPM, Jensens alpha, CML, systematic and idiosyncratic risk
A graph of assets’ expected returns ##(\mu)## versus standard deviations ##(\sigma)## is given in the graph below. The CML is the capital market line.
Which of the following statements about this graph, Markowitz portfolio theory and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) theory is NOT correct?
Question 810 CAPM, systematic and idiosyncratic risk, market efficiency
Examine the graphs below. Assume that asset A is a single stock. Which of the following statements is NOT correct? Asset A:
Question 988 variance, covariance, beta, CAPM, risk, no explanation
| Price Data Time Series | |||||||||||
| Sourced from Yahoo Finance Historical Price Data | |||||||||||
| Date | S&P500 Index (^GSPC) | Apple (AAPL) | |||||||||
| Open | High | Low | Close | Adj close | Open | High | Low | Close | Adj close | ||
| 2007, Wed 3 Jan | 1418 | 1429 | 1408 | 1417 | 1417 | 12.33 | 12.37 | 11.7 | 11.97 | 10.42 | |
| 2008, Wed 2 Jan | 1468 | 1472 | 1442 | 1447 | 1447 | 28.47 | 28.61 | 27.51 | 27.83 | 24.22 | |
| 2009, Fri 2 Jan | 903 | 935 | 899 | 932 | 932 | 12.27 | 13.01 | 12.17 | 12.96 | 11.28 | |
| 2010, Mon 4 Jan | 1117 | 1134 | 1117 | 1133 | 1133 | 30.49 | 30.64 | 30.34 | 30.57 | 26.6 | |
| Source: Yahoo Finance. | |||||||||||
Which of the following statements about the above table which is used to calculate Apple's equity beta is NOT correct?
Four retail business people compete in the same city. They are all exactly the same except that they have different ways of funding or leasing the shop real estate needed to run their retail business.
The two main assets that retail stores need are:
- Inventory typically worth $1 million which has a beta of 2, and;
- Shopfront real estate worth $1 million which has a beta of 1. Shops can be bought or leased.
Lease contract prices are fixed for the term of the lease and based on expectations of the future state of the economy. When leases end, a new lease contract is negotiated and the lease cost may be higher or lower depending on the state of the economy and demand and supply if the economy is:
- Booming, shop real estate is worth more and lease costs are higher.
- In recession, shop real estate is worth less and lease costs are low.
Which retail business person will have the LOWEST beta of equity (or net wealth)?
Question 1045 payout policy, leverage, capital structure, beta
A levered firm has only 2 assets on its balance sheet with the below market values and CAPM betas. The risk free rate is 3% pa and the market risk premium is 5% pa. Assume that the CAPM is correct and all assets are fairly priced.
| Balance Sheet Market Values and Betas | ||
| Balance sheet item | Market value ($m) | Beta |
| Cash asset | 0.5 | 0 |
| Truck assets | 0.5 | 2 |
| Loan liabilities | 0.25 | 0.1 |
| Equity funding | ? | ? |
The firm then pays out all of its cash as a dividend. Assume that the beta and yield on the loan liability remain unchanged. Ignore taxes, transaction costs, signalling, information asymmetries and other frictions.
Which of the following statements is NOT correct? This event led to a:
Below is a table showing GMO's 2016 estimates of different assets' durations, appearing in Slater (2017).
If you were certain that interest rates would fall more than the market expects, into what asset might you allocate more funds?
Question 872 duration, Macaulay duration, modified duration, portfolio duration
A fixed coupon bond’s modified duration is 20 years, and yields are currently 10% pa compounded annually. Which of the following statements about the bond is NOT correct?
Question 918 duration, Macaulay duration, modified duration, bond convexity
A fixed coupon bond’s modified duration is 10 years, and yields are currently 5% pa compounded annually. Which of the following statements about the bond is NOT correct?
Assume that the market portfolio has a duration of 15 years and an individual stock has a duration of 20 years.
What can you say about the stock's (single factor CAPM) beta with respect to the market portfolio? The stock's beta is likely to be:
Which of the following statements about vanilla floating coupon bonds paying quarterly coupons is NOT correct? A vanilla floating coupon bond's:
Question 1009 lemons problem, asymmetric information, adverse selection
Akerlof’s 1970 paper ‘The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism’ provides a famous example of asymmetric information leading to market failure. This example is commonly known as the ‘Lemons Problem’. Imagine that half of all second hand cars are:
- Lemons worth $5,000 each. Lemons are bad second-hand cars with hidden faults that only the seller knows about; and the other half are
- Plums worth $10,000 each. Plums are good second-hand cars without faults.
Car buyers can’t tell the difference between lemon and plum cars.
Car sellers know whether their car is a lemon or a plum since they’ve driven the car for a long time. However, plum car owners cannot prove their cars’ higher quality to buyers. Also, lemon car owners are known to dis-honestly claim that their cars are plums.
What will be the market price of second hand cars?
The current gold price is $700, gold storage costs are 2% pa and the risk free rate is 10% pa, both with continuous compounding.
What should be the 3 year gold futures price?
A very low-risk stock just paid its semi-annual dividend of $0.14, as it has for the last 5 years. You conservatively estimate that from now on the dividend will fall at a rate of 1% every 6 months.
If the stock currently sells for $3 per share, what must be its required total return as an effective annual rate?
If risk free government bonds are trading at a yield of 4% pa, given as an effective annual rate, would you consider buying or selling the stock?
The stock's required total return is:
The famous investor Warren Buffett is one of few portfolio managers who appears to have consistently beaten the market. His company Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) appears to have outperformed the US S&P500 market index, shown in the graph below.
Read the below statements about Warren Buffett and the implications for the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) theory of Eugene Fama. Assume that the first sentence is true. Analyse the second sentence and select the answer option which is NOT correct. In other words, find the false statement in the second sentence.
Select the most correct statement from the following.
'Chartists', also known as 'technical traders', believe that:
Question 1029 Buffett ratio
Tesla CEO Elon Musk asked a question to ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood on 6 April 2021: "What do you think of the unusually high ratio of the S&P market cap to GDP?", to which Cathie Wood replied.
What are the units of this S&P500 market cap to GDP ratio, commonly known as the Buffett ratio?
A managed fund charges fees based on the amount of money that you keep with them. The fee is 2% of the end-of-year amount, paid at the end of every year.
This fee is charged regardless of whether the fund makes gains or losses on your money.
The fund offers to invest your money in shares which have an expected return of 10% pa before fees.
You are thinking of investing $100,000 in the fund and keeping it there for 40 years when you plan to retire.
How much money do you expect to have in the fund in 40 years? Also, what is the future value of the fees that the fund expects to earn from you? Give both amounts as future values in 40 years. Assume that:
- The fund has no private information.
- Markets are weak and semi-strong form efficient.
- The fund's transaction costs are negligible.
- The cost and trouble of investing your money in shares by yourself, without the managed fund, is negligible.
- The fund invests its fees in the same companies as it invests your funds in, but with no fees.
The below answer choices list your expected wealth in 40 years, and then the fund's expected wealth in 40 years.
A company advertises an investment costing $1,000 which they say is underpriced. They say that it has an expected total return of 15% pa, but a required return of only 10% pa. Of the 15% pa total expected return, the dividend yield is expected to always be 7% pa and rest is the capital yield.
Assuming that the company's statements are correct, what is the NPV of buying the investment if the 15% total return lasts for the next 100 years (t=0 to 100), then reverts to 10% after that time? Also, what is the NPV of the investment if the 15% return lasts forever?
In both cases, assume that the required return of 10% remains constant, the dividends can only be re-invested at 10% pa and all returns are given as effective annual rates.
The answer choices below are given in the same order (15% for 100 years, and 15% forever):
Question 780 mispriced asset, NPV, DDM, market efficiency, no explanation
A company advertises an investment costing $1,000 which they say is under priced. They say that it has an expected total return of 15% pa, but a required return of only 10% pa. Of the 15% pa total expected return, the dividend yield is expected to be 4% pa and the capital yield 11% pa. Assume that the company's statements are correct.
What is the NPV of buying the investment if the 15% total return lasts for the next 100 years (t=0 to 100), then reverts to 10% after that time? Also, what is the NPV of the investment if the 15% return lasts forever?
In both cases, assume that the required return of 10% remains constant, the dividends can only be re-invested at 10% pa and all returns are given as effective annual rates. The answer choices below are given in the same order (15% for 100 years, and 15% forever):
Question 338 market efficiency, CAPM, opportunity cost, technical analysis
A man inherits $500,000 worth of shares.
He believes that by learning the secrets of trading, keeping up with the financial news and doing complex trend analysis with charts that he can quit his job and become a self-employed day trader in the equities markets.
What is the expected gain from doing this over the first year? Measure the net gain in wealth received at the end of this first year due to the decision to become a day trader. Assume the following:
- He earns $60,000 pa in his current job, paid in a lump sum at the end of each year.
- He enjoys examining share price graphs and day trading just as much as he enjoys his current job.
- Stock markets are weak form and semi-strong form efficient.
- He has no inside information.
- He makes 1 trade every day and there are 250 trading days in the year. Trading costs are $20 per trade. His broker invoices him for the trading costs at the end of the year.
- The shares that he currently owns and the shares that he intends to trade have the same level of systematic risk as the market portfolio.
- The market portfolio's expected return is 10% pa.
Measure the net gain over the first year as an expected wealth increase at the end of the year.
A managed fund charges fees based on the amount of money that you keep with them. The fee is 2% of the start-of-year amount, but it is paid at the end of every year.
This fee is charged regardless of whether the fund makes gains or losses on your money.
The fund offers to invest your money in shares which have an expected return of 10% pa before fees.
You are thinking of investing $100,000 in the fund and keeping it there for 40 years when you plan to retire.
What is the Net Present Value (NPV) of investing your money in the fund? Note that the question is not asking how much money you will have in 40 years, it is asking: what is the NPV of investing in the fund? Assume that:
- The fund has no private information.
- Markets are weak and semi-strong form efficient.
- The fund's transaction costs are negligible.
- The cost and trouble of investing your money in shares by yourself, without the managed fund, is negligible.
Here's an excerpt from an interview between Magellan fund co-founder Hamish Douglass and AFR reporter Vesna Poljak, which appeared in the Australian Financial Review article ‘It's all about interest rates: Hamish Douglass’, 19 July 2019:
Take a business growing at 4 per cent a year, with a cost of equity of 10 per cent based off a 5 per cent risk-free rate and a 5 per cent market risk premium: you would value that at around 16.6 times free cashflow.
Now take a business growing at the same rate, with a 4 per cent risk free rate. At a 9 per cent cost of equity that would command a 20 times multiple, he says.
At a 3 per cent risk-free rate, the cost of equity is 8 per cent, and the multiple is 25.
Finally at 2 per cent – 'which is where the world is at the moment' – the same business would be worth around 33 times free cashflow.
In August 2021, the RBA overnight cash rate and 3 year Australian government treasury bond yield were both 0.1% pa. If this low risk-free yield was expected to persist forever, what approximate equity price-to-cashflow multiple would that imply for a business expected to grow at 4% pa in perpetuity with a 5% equity risk premium?
Which of the following statements about call options is NOT correct?
Question 584 option, option payoff at maturity, option profit
Which of the following statements about European call options on non-dividend paying stocks is NOT correct?
Question 271 CAPM, option, risk, systematic risk, systematic and idiosyncratic risk
All things remaining equal, according to the capital asset pricing model, if the systematic variance of an asset increases, its required return will increase and its price will decrease.
If the idiosyncratic variance of an asset increases, its price will be unchanged.
What is the relationship between the price of a call or put option and the total, systematic and idiosyncratic variance of the underlying asset that the option is based on? Select the most correct answer.
Call and put option prices increase when the:
Question 904 option, Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing, option on future on stock index
A six month European-style call option on six month S&P500 index futures has a strike price of 2800 points.
The six month futures price on the S&P500 index is currently at 2740.805274 points. The futures underlie the call option.
The S&P500 stock index currently trades at 2700 points. The stock index underlies the futures. The stock index's standard deviation of continuously compounded returns is 25% pa.
The risk-free interest rate is 5% pa continuously compounded.
Use the Black-Scholes-Merton formula to calculate the option price. The call option price now is:
Question 434 Merton model of corporate debt, real option, option
A risky firm will last for one period only (t=0 to 1), then it will be liquidated. So it's assets will be sold and the debt holders and equity holders will be paid out in that order. The firm has the following quantities:
##V## = Market value of assets.
##E## = Market value of (levered) equity.
##D## = Market value of zero coupon bonds.
##F_1## = Total face value of zero coupon bonds which is promised to be paid in one year.
What is the payoff to debt holders at maturity, assuming that they keep their debt until maturity?
Question 381 Merton model of corporate debt, option, real option
In the Merton model of corporate debt, buying a levered company's debt is equivalent to buying risk free government bonds and:
Question 383 Merton model of corporate debt, real option, option
In the Merton model of corporate debt, buying a levered company's debt is equivalent to buying the company's assets and:
Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions.
Note that a fair gamble is a bet that has an expected value of zero, such as paying $0.50 to win $1 in a coin flip with heads or nothing if it lands tails. Fairly priced insurance is when the expected present value of the insurance premiums is equal to the expected loss from the disaster that the insurance protects against, such as the cost of rebuilding a home after a catastrophic fire.
Which of the following statements is NOT correct?
Question 704 utility, risk aversion, utility function, gamble
Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions.
Each person has $256 of initial wealth. A coin toss game is offered to each person at a casino where the player can win or lose $256. Each player can flip a coin and if they flip heads, they receive $256. If they flip tails then they will lose $256. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?
Question 703 utility, risk aversion, utility function, gamble
Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions.
Each person has $500 of initial wealth. A coin toss game is offered to each person at a casino where the player can win or lose $500. Each player can flip a coin and if they flip heads, they receive $500. If they flip tails then they will lose $500. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?
Question 702 utility, risk aversion, utility function, gamble
Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions.
Each person has $50 of initial wealth. A coin toss game is offered to each person at a casino where the player can win or lose $50. Each player can flip a coin and if they flip heads, they receive $50. If they flip tails then they will lose $50. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?
Question 701 utility, risk aversion, utility function, gamble
Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions.
Each person has $50 of initial wealth. A coin toss game is offered to each person at a casino where the player can win or lose $50. Each player can flip a coin and if they flip heads, they receive $50. If they flip tails then they will lose $50. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?
Question 699 utility, risk aversion, utility function, gamble
Mr Blue, Miss Red and Mrs Green are people with different utility functions.
Each person has $50 of initial wealth. A coin toss game is offered to each person at a casino where the player can win or lose $50. Each player can flip a coin and if they flip heads, they receive $50. If they flip tails then they will lose $50. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?
Question 707 continuously compounding rate, continuously compounding rate conversion
Convert a 10% effective annual rate ##(r_\text{eff annual})## into a continuously compounded annual rate ##(r_\text{cc annual})##. The equivalent continuously compounded annual rate is:
Which of the following interest rate quotes is NOT equivalent to a 10% effective annual rate of return? Assume that each year has 12 months, each month has 30 days, each day has 24 hours, each hour has 60 minutes and each minute has 60 seconds. APR stands for Annualised Percentage Rate.
Question 710 continuously compounding rate, continuously compounding rate conversion
A continuously compounded monthly return of 1% ##(r_\text{cc monthly})## is equivalent to a continuously compounded annual return ##(r_\text{cc annual})## of:
An effective monthly return of 1% ##(r_\text{eff monthly})## is equivalent to an effective annual return ##(r_\text{eff annual})## of:
An effective semi-annual return of 5% ##(r_\text{eff 6mth})## is equivalent to an effective annual return ##(r_\text{eff annual})## of:
The symbol ##\text{GDR}_{0\rightarrow 1}## represents a stock's gross discrete return per annum over the first year. ##\text{GDR}_{0\rightarrow 1} = P_1/P_0##. The subscript indicates the time period that the return is mentioned over. So for example, ##\text{AAGDR}_{1 \rightarrow 3}## is the arithmetic average GDR measured over the two year period from years 1 to 3, but it is expressed as a per annum rate.
Which of the below statements about the arithmetic and geometric average GDR is NOT correct?
Question 811 log-normal distribution, mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages
Which of the following statements about probability distributions is NOT correct?
Question 722 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate
Here is a table of stock prices and returns. Which of the statements below the table is NOT correct?
| Price and Return Population Statistics | ||||
| Time | Prices | LGDR | GDR | NDR |
| 0 | 100 | |||
| 1 | 50 | -0.6931 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| 2 | 100 | 0.6931 | 2 | 1 |
| Arithmetic average | 0 | 1.25 | 0.25 | |
| Arithmetic standard deviation | 0.9802 | 1.0607 | 1.0607 | |
Question 779 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate
Fred owns some BHP shares. He has calculated BHP’s monthly returns for each month in the past 30 years using this formula:
###r_\text{t monthly}=\ln \left( \dfrac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} \right)###He then took the arithmetic average and found it to be 0.8% per month using this formula:
###\bar{r}_\text{monthly}= \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( r_\text{t monthly} \right)} }{T} =0.008=0.8\% \text{ per month}###He also found the standard deviation of these monthly returns which was 15% per month:
###\sigma_\text{monthly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1}^T{\left( \left( r_\text{t monthly} - \bar{r}_\text{monthly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} =0.15=15\%\text{ per month}###Assume that the past historical average return is the true population average of future expected returns and the stock's returns calculated above ##(r_\text{t monthly})## are normally distributed. Which of the below statements about Fred’s BHP shares is NOT correct?
Question 792 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate, log-normal distribution, confidence interval
A risk manager has identified that their investment fund’s continuously compounded portfolio returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 40% pa. The fund’s portfolio is currently valued at $1 million. Assume that there is no estimation error in the above figures. To simplify your calculations, all answers below use 2.33 as an approximation for the normal inverse cumulative density function at 99%. All answers are rounded to the nearest dollar. Assume one month is 1/12 of a year. Which of the following statements is NOT correct?
Question 925 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate, no explanation
The arithmetic average and standard deviation of returns on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 were calculated as follows:
###\bar{r}_\text{yearly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1992}^{24}{\left( \ln \left( \dfrac{P_{t+1}}{P_t} \right) \right)} }{T} = \text{AALGDR} =0.0949=9.49\% \text{ pa}###
###\sigma_\text{yearly} = \dfrac{ \displaystyle\sum\limits_{t=1992}^{24}{\left( \left( \ln \left( \dfrac{P_{t+1}}{P_t} \right) - \bar{r}_\text{yearly} \right)^2 \right)} }{T} = \text{SDLGDR} = 0.1692=16.92\text{ pp pa}###
Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed and that the above estimates are true population statistics, not sample statistics, so there is no standard error in the sample mean or standard deviation estimates. Also assume that the standardised normal Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail probability of 2.5% is exactly -1.96.
Which of the following statements is NOT correct? If you invested $1m today in the ASX200, then over the next 4 years:
Question 926 mean and median returns, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate
The arithmetic average continuously compounded or log gross discrete return (AALGDR) on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 is 9.49% pa.
The arithmetic standard deviation (SDLGDR) is 16.92 percentage points pa.
Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed and that the above estimates are true population statistics, not sample statistics, so there is no standard error in the sample mean or standard deviation estimates. Also assume that the standardised normal Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail probability of 2.5% is exactly -1.96.
If you had a $1 million fund that replicated the ASX200 accumulation index, in how many years would the median dollar value of your fund first be expected to lie outside the 95% confidence interval forecast?
Question 928 mean and median returns, mode return, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate, no explanation
The arithmetic average continuously compounded or log gross discrete return (AALGDR) on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 is 9.49% pa.
The arithmetic standard deviation (SDLGDR) is 16.92 percentage points pa.
Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed and that the above estimates are true population statistics, not sample statistics, so there is no standard error in the sample mean or standard deviation estimates. Also assume that the standardised normal Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail probability of 2.5% is exactly -1.96.
If you had a $1 million fund that replicated the ASX200 accumulation index, in how many years would the mode dollar value of your fund first be expected to lie outside the 95% confidence interval forecast?
Note that the mode of a log-normally distributed future price is: ##P_{T \text{ mode}} = P_0.e^{(\text{AALGDR} - \text{SDLGDR}^2 ).T} ##
Question 929 standard error, mean and median returns, mode return, return distribution, arithmetic and geometric averages, continuously compounding rate
The arithmetic average continuously compounded or log gross discrete return (AALGDR) on the ASX200 accumulation index over the 24 years from 31 Dec 1992 to 31 Dec 2016 is 9.49% pa.
The arithmetic standard deviation (SDLGDR) is 16.92 percentage points pa.
Assume that the data are sample statistics, not population statistics. Assume that the log gross discrete returns are normally distributed.
What is the standard error of your estimate of the sample ASX200 accumulation index arithmetic average log gross discrete return (AALGDR) over the 24 years from 1992 to 2016?